Daniel Blaseg wins Best Doctoral Paper Award at the 3rd Entrepreneurial Finance Conference in Milan
Daniel Blaseg, doctoral candidate at the Chair of Electronic Commerce, has received the Best Doctoral Paper Award at the 3rd Entrepreneurial Finance Conference in Milan for his paper “The Fallacy Problem of Entrepreneurs.”
The paper – written in conjunction with Armin Schwienbacher from the SKEMA Business School – investigates the impact of the fallacy problem, i.e., the cognitive bias that leads individuals and especially entrepreneurs to ignore historical outcomes of comparable projects to evaluate their own project success. Drawing on an unique dataset on reward-based crowdfunding initiatives that covers the different development steps starting from planning to the ultimate outcome of the campaign, the findings suggest that entrepreneurs revise their overoptimistic estimates upwards when they are given historical outcomes of comparable and low-performing projects. Thus, entrepreneurs increase their degree of misjudgment further. Finally, the study shows that entrepreneurs suffering from the fallacy bias are more likely to eventually launch a crowdfunding campaign but also more likely to fail, indicating the fallacy bias has meaningful economic consequences for entrepreneurs.
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