DMV-ifo Marketing Barometer May 2018

Good prospects in the marketing industry

Compared with the previous month, the business climate index in the marketing industry remained stable in May, at 95.0 points below the average of the last two years. While business expectations for the coming months have increased, the assessment of the current business situation has dropped by just under one point. These assessments are also in line with the mood throughout the German economy. The Ifo Business Climate Index Germany remained unchanged in May, standing at 102.2 points. Despite this mild sentiment, respondents were more satisfied with current demand: the order backlog has improved slightly, rising by just under one point in May. However, the slightly more optimistic news was not enough to leave the negative area. The prospects for the coming quarter are also good: a higher number of respondents expect sales to increase in the next three months. The balance value increased by 8.0 points from the previous month. Accordingly, the willingness to hire new employees increased, and with a balance of 17.6 points it was well above the long-term average (measured since January 2005).

In addition, the reports show that the marketing industry is anticipating an increase in prices in the coming months: The number of optimistic reports has risen sharply, bringing the indicator to 17.9 points.

The ifo Business Climate is based on approximately 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. Participants are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. For both questions they have the opportunity to state their assessment on a three-level scale (good / satisfactory / bad / favorable / consistent / unfavorable). To calculate the indicator, the answers are first weighted in terms of size or annual sales of the respective companies. Subsequently, balances are formed for both variables from the shares of the "positive" and "negative" responses. The business climate is an average of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. Since January 2015, the X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment procedure is used to calculate the results of the Ifo Business Survey. To calculate the index values, the balances are normalized to the 2015 average. Source: Ifo Business Climate Germany.

The whole evaluation you find here. (only available in German)

Link to previous evaluations.